Time Series Analysis and Forecast (1 º Sem 2015/2016)

EAP (Econometria Aplicada e Previsão)

Program

- Introduction to forecasting methods: time series decomposition; moving average methods; calendar effects and seasonal adjustment, exponential smoothing methods;
- Box-Jenkins methodology: ARMA models; SARMA models; ARIMA models; SARIMA models; identification; estimation; diagnostic checking; forecasing;
- Intervention analysis and outlier detection;
- Combining forecasts;
- Applications with software EViews.