Research Link
Papers et al. Link
Published papers
[169] Afonso, A., Montes, A., Dominguez, J. (2024). A dynamic efficiency analysis for tax revenues in OECD countries, Empirica, forthcoming.[168] Afonso, A., Alves, Monteiro, S. (2024). “Banks’ portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk: From Safe Havens to Stormy Seas”, Finance Research Letters, forthcoming
[167] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Beck, K., Jackson, K. (2024). “Financial, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of cross-country portfolio equity flows: the case of developed countries”, Economic Modelling, forthcoming.
[166] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Jalles, J., Monteiro, S. (2024). “Beyond the Centre: Tracing Decentralization’s Influence on Time-varying Fiscal Sustainability”, International Review of Economics & Finance, forthcoming.
[165] Afonso, A., Rodrigues, E. (2024). “Consumption patterns of indebted households: unravelling the relevance of fiscal policy”, International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, forthcoming.
[164] Afonso, A., Huart, F., Jalles, J., Stanek, P. (2024). ”Determinants and international transmission of interest rates: do foreign reserves and sovereign debt matter?” Review of International Economics, forthcoming.
[163] Afonso, A., Mourão, H. (2024). “Commonalities and Heterogeneity in the Iberian Business Cycle”, Journal of Economic Asymmetries, forthcoming.
[162] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Monteiro, J. (2024), “Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU: the time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, forthcoming.
[161] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Beck, K. (2024). “Drivers of migration flows in the European Union. Earnings or unemployment?”, International Labour Review, forthcoming.
[160] Afonso, A., Jalles, J., Venâncio, A. (2024). “Fiscal Decentralization and Public Sector Efficiency: Do Natural Disasters matter?” Economic Modelling, forthcoming
[159] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Monteiro, S. (2024). “Beyond Borders: Assessing the Influence of Geopolitical Tensions on Sovereign Risk Dynamics”, European Journal of Political Economy, forthcoming.
[158] Afonso, A., Mignon, V., Saadaoui, J. (2024), “On the time-varying impact of China's bilateral political relations on its trading partners: "doux commerce" or "trade follows the flag?”, China Economic Review, 85, 102184.
[157] Afonso, A., Blanco-Arana, M. Carmen (2024). “The Nexus Between Economic Freedom And Economic Growth in the LDCs. An Empirical Analysis for the Period 2000-2021”, CZECH JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, forthcoming.
[156] Afonso, A., Coelho, J. (2024). “Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants”, Applied Economics, forthcoming
[155] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Coelho, J. (2024). “Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
[154] Afonso, A., Coelho, J. (2024). “Drivers of fiscal sustainability: A time-varying analysis for Portugal”, International Economics, forthcoming.
[153] Afonso, A., Jalles, J., Venâncio, A. (2024), “A tale of government spending efficiency and trust in the State”, Public Choice, forthcoming.
[152] Afonso, A., Blanco-Arana, M. Carmen (2024). “DOES FINANCIAL INCLUSION ENHANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES?”, International Economics, forthcoming.
[151] Afonso, A., Fraga, G. (2023). “Government spending efficiency in Latin America”, Empirica, forthcoming.
[150] Afonso, A., Pereira, F. (2023). “Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area. Impacts on Loans, Employment, and Investment”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
[149] Afonso, A., Blanco-Arana, M. Carmen (2023). “Unemployment and financial development: evidence for OECD countries”, Comparative Economic Studies, forthcoming.
[148] Afonso, A., Coelho, J. (2023). “Twin Deficits through the Looking Glass: Time-Varying Analysis in the Euro Area”, Economic Change and Restructuring, forthcoming.
[147] Afonso, A., Sousa, A. (2023). “Monetary and fiscal interplay: does it work both ways?”, Economic Systems, forthcoming.
[146] Afonso, A., Alves, J. (2023). “Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?”, European Journal of Political Economy,, forthcoming.
[145] Afonso, A., Rodrigues, E. (2023). "Is public investment in construction and in R&D, growth enhancing? A PVAR Approach", Applied Economics, forthcoming
[144] Afonso, A., Coelho, J. (2023). "Public finances solvency in the Euro Area", Economic Analysis and Policy, 77, 642-657.
[143] Afonso, A., Coelho, J. (2022). "Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal", World Economy, forthcoming.
[142] Afonso, A., Jalles, J., Venter, Z. (2022). “Minimum Wage and Collective Bargaining Shocks: A Narrative Database for Advanced Economies”, IZA Journal of Labor Policy, forthcoming,
[141] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Jalles, J. (2022). “To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability”, International Economics, forthcoming.
[140] Afonso, A., Alves, J. (2022). “Are fiscal consolidation episodes helpful for public sector efficiency?” Applied Economics, forthcoming.
[139] Afonso, A., Carvalho, F. (2022). “Euro area time-varying cyclicality of fiscal policy”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, forthcoming.
[138] Afonso, A., Opoku, P. (2022). “THE NEXUS BETWEEN FISCAL AND CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES IN OECD ECONOMIES”, Applied Economics, forthcoming.
[137] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Jalles, J. (2022). “(Non-)Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Austerity: New Evidence from a large sample”, Economic Systems, 46 (2), 100981.
[136] Afonso, A., Coelho, J. (2022). “Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU experience of Portugal”, Cuadernos Económicos de ICE, nº 103, 2022/I.
[135] Afonso, A., Reimers, M. (2022). “Does the Introduction of Stock Exchange Markets Boost Economic Growth in African Countries?”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 77, 101505.
[134] Afonso, A., Jalles, J., Venâncio, A. (2022). “Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?”, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 77, 101505.
[133] Afonso, A., Blanco-Arana, M. Carmen (2022). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Study for OECD Countries in the Context of Crisis”, International Economics, 169, 30-42.
[132] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Jalles, J. (2022). “Fiscal Reaction Functions in the EU: a tale of “r-g” and whether it matters”, Révue française d’économie, VOL XXXVI (3), 55-70.
[131] Afonso, A., Jalles, J., Venâncio, A. (2021). “Structural Tax Reforms and Public Spending Efficiency”, Open Economies Review, 32, 1017–1061.
[130] Afonso, A., Leão, E., Tiny, D., Bhimjee, C. (2022). “Fiscal Sustainability in the PALOP Economies”, Notas Económicas, 54.
[129] Afonso, A., Fortes, E. (2022). “Corruption and economic growth: does the size of the government matter?” Economic Change and Restructuring, 55, 543–576.
[128] Afonso, A., Guedes, M., Patel, P. (2021). “Labour Productivity in State-Owned Enterprises”, Comparative Economic Studies, 63 (3), 450-465.
[127] Afonso, A., Huart, F., Jalles, J., Stanek, P. (2022). “Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 121, 102506.
[126] Afonso, A., Coelho, J. (2022). “The Role of Fiscal Policies for External Imbalances: Evidence from the European Union”, Economic Systems, 46 (2), 100985.
[125] Afonso, A., Jalles, J., Venâncio, A. (2021). “Taxation and Public Spending Efficiency: An International Comparison”, Comparative Economic Studies, 63 (3), 356-383.
[124] Afonso, A., Gadelha, S., Silva. A. (2021). “Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil”, Public Finance Notebooks, 20 (30), 1-46.
[123] Afonso, A., Kazemi, M. (2020). “Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads Spillovers in the EMU”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
[122] Afonso, A., Sen, H., Kaya, A. (2020). “Government Size, Unemployment, and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies”; Review of Public Economics, forthcoming.
[121] Afonso, A., Leal, F. (2022). “Fiscal episodes in the Economic and Monetary Union: Elasticities and non-keynesian effects”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 27 (1), 571-593.
[120] Afonso, A., Leite, J. (2020). “THE TRANSMISSION OF UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY TO BANK CREDIT SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM THE TLTRO”, Manchester School, forthcoming.
[119] Afonso, A., Jalles, J., Kazemi, M. (2020). “The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads”, International Review of Law & Economics, forthcoming.
[118] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2019). “Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers' Characteristics”, Economics Bulletin, 39 (4).
[117] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2019). “Sovereign Indebtedness and Financial and Fiscal Conditions”, Applied Economics Letters, forthcoming.
[116]Afonso, A., Huart, F., Jalles, J., Stanek, P. (2020). “Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU”, Portuguese Economic Journal, 19 (2), 155-170.
[115] Afonso, A., Venâncio, A. (2020). "Local Territorial Reform and Regional Spending Efficiency", Local Government Studies , forthcoming.
[114] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2020). "Stock Flow Adjustments in Sovereign Debt Dynamics: The role of Fiscal Frameworks ", International Review of Economics and Finance, 65, 1-16.
[113] Afonso, A., Schuknecht, L. (2019). "How "Big" Should Government Be?", Economics and Business Letters, 8 (2), 84-95..
[112] Afonso, A., Ibraimo, Y. (2020). "The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Mozambique", Applied Economics, 52 (2), 212-226.
[111] Afonso, A., Leal, F. (2019). "Fiscal Multipliers in the Eurozone: A SVAR Analysis", Applied Economics, 51 (5), 5577-5593.
[110] Afonso, A., Alves, J. (2019). "Optimal Tax Structure for Consumption and Income Inequality: an Empirical Assessment", SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 74, 129-147.
[109] Afonso, A., Cardoso, P. (2019). "Exchange-traded Funds as an Alternative Investment Option: a Case Study", Notas Económicas, 48, 7-37 .
[108] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2019). "The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization", Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 74, 129-147.
[107] Afonso, A., Alves, J., Balhote, R. (2019). "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policies", J ournal of Applied Economics, 22 (1), 131-150.
[106] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2018). "Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs", Fiscal Studies, 40 (1), 71-90.
[105] Afonso, A., Alves, J. (2018). "Short and Long-Term Interest Rate Risk: The Sovereign Balance-Sheet Nexus", Finance Research Letters, 31, 291-299.
[104] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2019). "Quantitative Easing and Sovereign Yield Spreads: Euro-Area Time-Varying Evidence", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money , 58, 208-224.
[103] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2018). "Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-)Significance", FinanzArchiv, 75 (3), 207-228..
[102] Afonso, A., Gonçalves, L. (2020). "The Policy Mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR Analysis", North American Journal of Economics and Finance ,51.
[101] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2018). "Inflation Dynamics, Price Volatility and Fiscal Activism", Macroeconomic Dynamics , forthcoming.
[100] Afonso, A., Huart, F., Jalles, J., Stanek, P. (2019). "Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union", The World Economy , 42 (2), 320-348.
[99] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2020). "Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields' Determinants: a Time-Varying Approach", Empirical Economics, 58 (2), 320-348.
[98] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2018). "Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts' Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area", Open Economies Review, 30 (1), 133-156.
[97] Afonso, A., Albuquerque, A. (2018). "Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches", Notas Económicas , 46, 49-70.
[96] Afonso, A., Arghyrou, M., Gadea, M., Kontonikas, A. (2018). ""Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects", Journal of International Money and Finance , 86, 1-30.
[95] Afonso, A., Silva, J. (2019). "Effects of euro area monetary policy on institutional sectors: the case of Portugal", Cuadernos de Economia, 42 (120), 219-236.
[94] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (2019). "Economic Growth, Public, and Private Investment Returns in 17 OECD Economies", Portuguese Economic Journal, 18 (1), 47-65.
[93] Afonso, A., Kazemi, M. (2018). "Euro Area Sovereign Yields and the Power of Unconventional Monetary Policy", Finance a úvěr-Czech Journal of Economics and Finance , 68 (2), 100-119.
[92] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2017). "SOVEREIGN DEBT COMPOSITION AND TIME-VARYING PUBLIC FINANCE SUSTAINABILITY", North American Journal of Economics and Finance , 42, 144-155.
[91] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2017). "Euro area time varying fiscal sustainability", International Journal of Finance and Economics , 22 (3), 244-254.
[90] Afonso, A., Silva, J. (2018). "Debt crisis and 10-year sovereign yields in Ireland and in Portugal", Applied Economics Letters, 25 (4), 217-222.
[89] Afonso, A., Baxa, J., Slavik, M. (2018). "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis", Empirical Economics, 52 (4), 395-423.
[88] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2017). "Fiscal Episodes and Market Power", Open Economies Review, 28 (29, 233-250.
[87] Afonso, A., Silva, J. (2017). "Current account balance cyclicality", Applied Economics Letters, 24 (13), 911-917.
[86] Afonso, A., Ayadi, M., Ramzi, S. (2016). "Assessment of efficiency in basic and secondary education in Tunisia: A regional analysis", International Journal of Educational Development , 51, 62-76.
[85] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2017). "The Price Relevance of Fiscal Developments", International Economic Journal , 31 (1), 36-50.
[84] Afonso, A., Alves, J. (2017). "Reconsidering Wagner's Law: Evidence from the Functions of the Government", Applied Economics Letters , 24(5), 346-350.
[83] Afonso, A., Silva, J. (2017). "Determinants of non-resident government debt ownership", Applied Economics Letters , 24 (2), 107-112.
[82] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2016). "Budgetary decomposition and yield spreads", Applied Economics Letters , 23 (15), 1093-1098.
[81] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2016). "The Elusive Character of Fiscal Sustainability", Applied Economics , 48 (28), 2651-2664.
[80] Afonso, A., Martins, L. (2016). "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU", International Journal of Finance and Economics , 21, 247-265.
[79] Afonso, A., Venâncio, A. (2015). "The relevance of commuting zones for regional spending efficiency", Applied Economics , 48 (10), 865-877.
[78] Afonso, A. Alves, J. (2015). "The role of government debt in economic growth", Review of Public Economics , 215-(4/2015): 9-26.
[77] Afonso, A., Silva, J. (2015). "THE TRACK RECORD OF FISCAL FORECASTING IN THE EU", Economics Bulletin , 35 (2), 1318-1329.
[76] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2016). "Markups' Cyclical Behavior: The role of Demand and Supply Shocks", Applied Economics Letters , 23 (1) 1-5.
[75] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2015). "How does fiscal policy affect investment? Evidence from a large panel", International Journal of Finance and Economics , forthcoming.
[74] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2015). "Economic Performance, Government Size, and Institutional Quality", Empirica , forthcoming.
[73] Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2015). "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields", Applied Economics , 47 (37), 3971-3993.
[72] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2015). "Fiscal Sustainability: A Panel Assessment of Advanced Economies", Applied Economics Letters , 22 (11), 925-929.
[71] Afonso, A., Guimarães, A. (2015). "The relevance of fiscal rules for fiscal and sovereign yield developments", Applied Economics Letters , 22 (11), 920-924.
[70] Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2015). "Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability", Economic Modelling , 48, 199-209.
[69] Afonso, A., Arghyrou, M., Bagdatoglou, G., Kontonikas, A. (2015). "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants", Economic Modelling , 44, 363-371.
[68] Afonso, A., Ayadi, M., Ramzi, S. (2013). "Assessing Productivity Performance of Basic and Secondary Education in Tunisia: A Malmquist Analysis", Journal of Business & Economics 5 (1), 104-128.
[67] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2014). "Causality for the government budget and economic growth", Applied Economics Letters , 21 (17), 1198-1201.
[66] Afonso, A., Nunes, S. (2015). "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields", Economic Modelling , 44, 319-326.
[65] Afonso, A., Gomes, P. (2014). "Interactions between private and public sector wages", Journal of Macroeconomics , 39, 97-112.
[64] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2014). "A Longer-run Perspective on Fiscal Sustainability", Empirica , 41(4), 821-847.
[63] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2014). "Assessing Fiscal Espisodes", Economic Modelling , 37, 255-270.
[62] Afonso, A., Gomes, P., Taamouti, A. (2014). "Sovereign credit ratings, market volatility, and financial gains", Computational Statistics and Data Analysis , 76, 20-33. Data used.
[61] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2014). "Fiscal Composition and Long-term Growth", Applied Economics . 46 (3). 349-358,
[60] Afonso, A., Rault, C., Estay, C. (2013). "Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic", Journal of Quantitative Economics , 11 (1-2), 45-71.
[59] Afonso, A., Arghyrou, M., Kontonikas, A. (2014). "Pricing sovereign bond risk in the EMU area: an empirical investigation", International Journal of Finance and Economics , 19 (1), 49-56.
[58] Afonso, A., Costa, L. (2013). "Market power and fiscal policy in OECD countries", Applied Economics , 45 (32), 4509-4519. Data set.
[57] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (2013). "Public and Private Inputs in Aggregate Production and Growth: A Cross-country Efficiency Approach ", Applied Economics , 45 (32), 4451-4466.
[56] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2013). "The cyclicality of education, health, and social security government spending", Applied Economics Letters , 20 (7), 669-672.
[55] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2013). "Growth and Productivity: the role of Government Debt", International Review of Economics and Finance , 25, 384-407.
[54] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2013). "Do fiscal rules matter for growth?" Applied Economics Letters , 20 (1), 34-40.
[53] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2012). "Fiscal Volatility, Financial Crises and Growth", Applied Economics Letters , 19 (18), 1821-1826.
[52] Afonso, A., Martins, M. (2012). "Level, Slope, Curvature of the Sovereign Yield Curve, and Fiscal Behaviour", Journal of Banking and Finance , 36 (6), 1789-1907.
[51] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2011). "Appraising fiscal reaction functions", Economics Bulletin , 31 (4), 3320-3330.
[50] Afonso, A., Jalles, J. (2012). "Measuring the success of fiscal consolidations", Applied Financial Economics , 22 (13), 1053-1061.
[49] Afonso, A., Furceri, D., Gomes, P. (2012). "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data", Journal of International Money and Finance , 31 (3), 606-638.
[48] Afonso, A., Sousa, R. (2012). "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy", Applied Economics, 44 (34), 4439-4454.
[47] Afonso, A., Gomes, P. (2011). "Do fiscal imbalances deteriorate sovereign debt ratings?", Revue Économique , 62 (6), 1123-1134.
[46] Afonso, A., Sousa, R. (2011). "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Asset Markets?" Economic Modelling , 28 (4), 1871-1890.
[45] Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2011). "Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields", Economics Bulletin , 31 (1), 367-374.
[44] Afonso, A., Sousa, R. (2011). "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis", Portuguese Economic Journal , 10 (1), 61-82.
[43] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (2011). "Assessing health efficiency across countries with a two-step and bootstrap analysis", Applied Economics Letters , 18 (15), 1427-1430.
[42] Afonso, A., Sousa, R. (2011). "Consumption, Wealth, Stock and Government Bond Returns: International Evidence", Manchester School , 79 (6), 1294-1322.
[41] Afonso, A.; Agnello, L.; Furceri, D.; Sousa, R. (2011). "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach", Journal of International Money and Finance , 30 (1), 130-146.
[40] Afonso, A.; Claeys, P.; Sousa, R. (2011). "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal", Portuguese Economic Journal , 10 (2), 83-108.
[39] Afonso, A., González Alegre, J. (2011). "Economic Growth and Budgetary Components: a Panel Assessment for the EU", Empirical Economics , 41 (3), 703-723.
[38] Afonso, A., Schuknecht, L. Tanzi, V. (2010). "Income Distribution Determinants and Public Spending Efficiency", Journal of Economic Inequality , 8 (3), 367-389.
[37] Afonso, A., Furceri, D. (2010). "Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth", European Journal of Political Economy , 26 (4), 517-532.
[36] Afonso, A., Furceri, D. (2009). "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union", Economics Bulletin , 29 (4), 2996-3014.
[35] Afonso, A., Agnello, L., Furceri, D. (2010). "Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence, and Discretion", Public Choice , 145 (3-4), 503-530.
[34] Afonso, A., Gomes, P., Rother, P. (2011). "Short and Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Debt Credit Ratings", International Journal of Finance and Economics , 16 (1), 1-15. Data used.
[33] Afonso, A., Sousa, R. (2011). "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal", Applied Economics Letters , 18 (1), 1-5.
[32] Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2009). "Spend-and-tax: a panel data investigation for the EU", Economics Bulletin , 29 (4), 2545-2551.
[31] Afonso, A. (2010). "Long-term Government Bond Yields and Economic Forecasts: Evidence for the EU", Applied Economics Letters , 17 (15), 1437-1441.
[30] Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2009). "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU", Economics Bulletin , 29 (2), 1036-1043.
[29] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (2009). "Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Private Investment: Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects", Manchester School , 77 (S1), 21-39.
[28] Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2010). "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic", Review of World Economics , 145 (4), 731-755.
[27] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (2010). "Public and Private Investment Rates of Return: Evidence for Industrialised Countries", Applied Economics Letters , 17 (9), 839 - 843.
[26] Afonso, A. (2008). "Euler testing Ricardo and Barro in the EU", Economics Bulletin , 5 (16), 1-14.
[25] Afonso, A. (2008). "Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union", Empirica , 35 (3), 313-334.
[24] Afonso, A., Rault, C. (2007). "Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?" Economics Bulletin , 3 (63), 1-19.
[23] Afonso, A.; Schuknecht, L., Tanzi, V. (2010). "Public Sector Efficiency: Evidence for New EU Member States and Emerging Markets", Applied Economics , 42 (17), 2147-2164.
[22] Afonso, A. (2010). "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence", Applied Economics Letters , 17 (2), 105-109.
[21] Afonso, A., Furceri, D. (2008). "EMU Enlargement, Stabilisation Costs and Insurance Mechanisms", Journal of International Money and Finance , 27 (2), 169-187.
[20] Afonso, A. (2007). "An avenue for expansionary fiscal contractions", IUP Journal of Public Finance , 5 (3), 7-15.
[19] Afonso, A., Claeys, P. (2007). "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output", Economic Modelling , 25 (1), 93-117.
[18] Afonso, A., Santos, M. (2008). "A DEA Approach to the Relative Efficiency of Portuguese Public Universities", Portuguese Journal of Management Studies , 13 (1), 65-85.
[17] Afonso, A., Gaspar, V. (2007). "Dupuit, Pigou and cost of inefficiency in public services provision", Public Choice , 132 (3-4), 485-502.
[16] Afonso, A., Fernandes, S. (2008). "Assessing and Explaining the Relative efficiency of Local Government", Journal of Socio-Economics , 37(5), 1946-1979.
[15] Afonso, A.; Gomes, P., Rother, P. (2009). "Ordered Response Models for Sovereign Debt Ratings", Applied Economics Letters , 16 (8), 769-773.
[14] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (2006). "Cross-country Efficiency of Secondary Education Provision: a Semi-parametric Analysis with Non-discretionary Inputs", Economic Modelling , 2006, 22 (3), 476-491.
[13] Afonso, A., Strauch, R. (2007). "Fiscal Policy Events and Interest Rate Swap Spreads: some Evidence from the EU", Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money , 17 (3), 261-276, 2007.
[12] Afonso, A.; Nickel, C., Rother, P. (2006). "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries," Review of World Economics , 142 (2), 402-421.
[11] Afonso, A., Fernandes, S. (2006). "Measuring Local Government Spending Efficiency: Evidence for the Lisbon Region," Regional Studies , 40 (1), 39-53.
[10] Afonso, A. (2005). "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv , 61 (1), 19-44.
[9] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (2005). "Non-parametric Approaches to Education and Health Efficiency in OECD Countries," Journal of Applied Economics, 8 (2), 227-246.
[8] Afonso, A.; Schuknecht, L., Tanzi, V. (2005). "Public Sector Efficiency: an International Comparison," Public Choice , 123 (3-4), 321-347.
[7] Afonso, A. (2003). "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance , 27 (1), 56-74.
[6] Afonso, A., Teixeira, J. (1999). "Non-linear Tests of Weakly Efficient Markets: Evidence from Portugal," Estudos de Economia, 19 (2), 169-187. (on SSRN)
[5] Afonso, A., St. Aubyn, M. (1999). "Credit Rationing and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for Portugal," Estudos de Economia, 19 (1), 5-19. (on SSRN)
[4] Afonso, A. Teixeira, J. (1998). "Non-linear Tests of Weakly Efficient Markets: Evidence from Government Bond Markets in the Euro Area," Cadernos do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários, 3 (2 nd Half), 43-70, Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários. (on SSRN)
[3] Afonso, A. (1997). "Normality and Efficiency in Portuguese Stock Exchange Indexes," Estudos de Economia, 16-17 (1), 101-106. (on SSRN)
[2] Afonso, A. (1995). "Public Deficits and Inflation, some more Results for Portugal," Estudos de Economia, 15 (3), 273-286. (on SSRN)
[1] Afonso, A. (1993). "Causality between Public Deficits and Inflation: Some Tests for the Portuguese Case," Estudos de Economia, 13 (4), 349-362. (on SSRN)
Other papers/publications
[9] Afonso, A., Arghyrou, M., Dufrénot, G. (2015). "Economic and Financial Adjustments in Europe", Economic Modelling, 44, 317-318.
[8] "Comment on Fiscal Policy, Structural Reforms and External Imbalances", Moneda y Credito , 2011, 232
[7] Afonso, A. (2009). "Neck, R. and Sturm, J.-E. (eds). Sustainability of Public Debt" Journal of Economics , 97 (1), 95-96.
[6] Afonso, A., Schuknecht, L. (2008). "Introduction to the Symposium on "How to achieve Fiscal Sustainability in Industrialised Countries?" Public Finance and Management , 8 (3), 302-305.
[5] "Afonso, A. (2006). "A eficiência do Estado", Boletim de Desenvolvimento Fiscal , 2006, 03, 8-19. Instituto de Pesquisa Económica Aplicada, Ministério do Planejamento, Orçamento e Gestão do Brasil.
[4] Afonso, A. (2006). "Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the EU15," CESifo DICE Report , Journal for Institutional Comparisons, 4 (1), Spring, 34-38, 2006.
[3] Afonso, A. (2004). Book review of Tax Expenditures - Shedding Light on Government Spending through the Tax System: Lessons from Developed and Transition Economies, Hana Brixi, Christian Valenduc and Zhicheng Swift, eds, the World Bank, Washington D.C., 2004, 245 pp., Reflets et Perspectives , 43 (2), 95-96, 2004.
[2] Afonso, A. (2004). "A Note on Public Spending Efficiency," CESifo DICE Report , Journal for Institutional Comparisons, 2 (1), Spring, 35-39, 2004.
[1] Afonso, A. (1999). A Segurança Social e o Orçamento do Estado , [Social Security and the State Budget], Teaching Manual, PROFISS (Projecto de Formação Inicial Qualificante para a Solidariedade e Segurança Social), Sate Secretary of Social Security and Labour Relations, Ministry of Labour and Solidarity, 1999.
Books/chapters in books/proceedings
[30] Handbook on Public Sector Efficiency, Edited by António Afonso, João Tovar Jalles and Ana Venâncio. March 2023. Edward Elgar. ISBN: 978 1 83910 915 7: 448 pp
[29] António Afonso and Mina Kazemi (2017). "Assessing Public Spending Efficiency in 20 OECD Countries", in Inequality and Finance in Macrodynamics (Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance), Bettina Bökemeier and Alfred Greiner (Editors). Springer.
[28] António Afonso and Miguel St. Aubyn (2016). "Economic Growth and Public and Private Investment Returns", in Fiscal Policy after the Crisis - Workshop Proceedings. Salto, M. (ed.), Discussion Papers 35, European Commission.
[27] Introdução à Economia Financeira: Teoria e Exercícios [Introduction to Financial Economics: Theory and Exercises], 2ª edição, with Maria Rosa Borges, João Calado, Maria Teresa Garcia, 2016, Escolar Editora.
[26] Economia e Finanças Públicas, 5ª edição [Economics and Public Finance, 5th edition], with Paulo Trigo Pereira, Manuela Arcanjo, José Gomes Santos, 2016, Escolar Editora.
[25] António Afonso& João Tovar Jalles, 2013. " Fiscal Composition and Long-term Growth ," In, Morten Balling & Peter Egger & Ernest Gnan &Axel A. Weber & Harald W. Stieber& Stavros Vourloumis & António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Franco Bruni & André van Poeck & Maartje Wijffelaars & Sé, 2013. " States, Banks, and the Financing of the Economy: Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Risk Perspectives ," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2013/2 edited by Morten Balling & Peter Egger & Ernest Gnan, March.
[24] Economia Monetária e Financeira, 2ª edição [Monetary and Financial Economics, 2nd edition], with Margarida Abreu, Cândida Ferreira, Vitor Escária, 2012, Escolar Editora.
[23] Economia e Finanças Públicas, 4ª edição [Economics and Public Finance, 4th edition], with Paulo Trigo Pereira, Manuela Arcanjo, José Gomes Santos, 2012, Escolar Editora.
[22] "Fiscal Policy and Growth: do Financial Crises make a Difference?" with Hans P. Grüner and Christina Kolerus, in Fiscal policy: lessons form the crisis, proceedings of the Workshop in Public Finances of the Bank of Italy held in Perugia, 25-27 March 2010, forthcoming.
[21] "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output: the cases of France, Germany, Portugal and Spain", in Fiscal Policy Making in the European Union: An assessment of current practice and challenges, Larch, M. and Martins, J. (eds.), with Peter Claeys, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Books, 2009. ISBN 978-92-79-11451-9 (pbk) , ISBN 978-0-203-86645-0 (ebk).
[20] "Comments on Pension Reform and Capital Markets", in Pension Reform, Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance, proceedings of the Workshop in Public Finances of the Bank of Italy held in Perugia, 26-28 March 2009.
[19] "Public and private inputs in aggregate production and growth: a cross-country efficiency approach", in The quality of public finances and economic growth: Proceedings to the annual Workshop on public finance, S. Barrios, L. Pench and A. Schaechter (eds.), with M. St. Aubyn, European Economy - Occasional Papers n. 45, March 2009, 223-243. ISBN 978-92-79-11259-1 .
[18] Economia e Finanças Públicas, 3ª edição [Economics and Public Finance, 3rd edition], with Paulo Trigo Pereira, Manuela Arcanjo and José Gomes Santos, 2009, Escolar Editora. ISBN .
[17] "What "Hides" Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?", in New Developments in Financial Modelling, J. Soares, J. Pina e M. Catalão-Lopes (eds.), with P. Gomes and P. Rother, Cambridge Scholars Publishing, ISBN 978-1847186744 , 1 September 2008.
[16] "Relative Efficiency of Health Provision: A DEA Approach with Non-Discretionary Inputs", in The Quality of Public Finances, S. Deroose, C. Kastrop (eds.), with M. St. Aubyn, European Economy - Occasional Papers n. 37, March 2008, 39-60. ISBN 978-92-79-08371-6
[15] "Public Sector Efficiency: Evidence for New EU Member States and Emerging Markets", in The Quality of Public Finances, S. Deroose, C. Kastrop (eds.), with L. Schuknecht and V. Tanzi, European Economy - Occasional Papers n. 37, March 2008, 279-308. ISBN 978-92-79-08371-6
[14] "Quality of Public Finances and Growth", in The Quality of Public Finances, S. Deroose, C. Kastrop (eds.), with W. Ebert, L. Schuknecht and M. Thöne, European Economy - Occasional Papers n. 37, March 2008, 39-60. ISBN 978-92-79-08371-6 .
[13] "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU?" A panel data diagnostic", in Fiscal sustainability: analytical developments and emerging policy issues, with Christophe Rault, proceedings of the Workshop in Public Finances of the Bank of Italy held in Perugia, 3-5 April 2008, 49-68.
[12] "Efficiency in italian regional public utilities' provision", with Carla Scaglioni, in Servizi Publici: Nuove tendenze nella regolamentazione, nella produzione e nel finanziamento, pp. 397-418, eds. M. Marrelli, F. Padovano and I. Rizzo, 2007, FrancoAngeli, Milano, Italy. ISBN 978-88-464-8786-5 .
[11] "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence", in Fiscal Policy: Current Issues and Challenges, proceedings of the Workshop in Public Finances of the Bank of Italy held in Perugia, 29-31 April 2007, 283-306.
[10] "Assessing health efficiency across countries with a two-step and bootstrap analysis", with Miguel St. Aubyn, in Fiscal Policy Challenges in Europe proceedings of the conference organised by German Ministry of Finances and by the ZEW, 22-23 March 2007, 263-295.
[9] Economia e Finanças Públicas, 2ª edição [Economics and Public Finance, 2nd edition], with Paulo Trigo Pereira, Manuela Arcanjo and José Gomes Santos, 2007, Escolar Editora. ISBN 972-592-200-X .
[8] "Assessing Education and Health Efficiency in OECD Countries Using Alternative Input Measures," with Miguel St. Aubyn in Public Expenditure, proceedings of the Workshop in Public Finances of the Bank of Italy held in Perugia, 31 March-2 April 2005, 361-388.
[7] "Public Services Efficiency Provision in Italian Regions: a Non-Parametric Analysis," with Carla Scaglioni, in Perspectives on International, State and Local Economics, ed. Liu, G., 2006, Nova Science Publishers, New York. ISBN 1-60021-099-6.
[6] Economia e Finanças Públicas [Economics and Public Finance], with Paulo Trigo Pereira, Manuela Arcanjo and José Gomes Santos, March de 2005, Escolar Editora. ISBN 972-592-186-0 .
[5] "Comments on Managing Public Debt," in Public Debt, proceedings of the Workshop in Public Finances of the Bank of Italy held in Perugia, 1-3 April 2004, 945-956.
[4] "Quality of Public Finances and Growth," with W. Ebert; L. Schuknecht e M. Thöne, in Les Finances Publiques: Defis à Moyen et Long Termes, "16ème Congrés des Economistes belges de Langue Française," Mons, 16-17 February 2005. Centre Interuniversitaire de Formation Permanente, 2005/2675/1, Charleroi. ISBN 87306-116-2 .
[3] Introdução à Economia Financeira: Teoria e Exercícios [Introduction to Financial Economics: Theory and Exercises] with Carlos Barros, Maria Rosa Borges, João Calado, Maria Teresa Garcia and Rui Relvas, March 2004, Escolar Editora. ISBN 972-592-162-3.
[2] "Finanças públicas e consolidações orçamentais: o caso de Portugal," [Public finances and fiscal consolidations: the case of Portugal] in Melhor Gestão para uma Melhor Administração [Better Governance for a Better Administration], 2003, chapter 5, pp. 117-131, ISCSP ( proceedingsof a conference organised by ISCSP-UTL, 18-19 June 2002). ISBN 972-8726-18-X.
[1] "Credit Rationing and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for Portugal," Proceedings of the III Conference of the Portuguese Speaking Economists, University of Macao, 28-30 June 1998, vol. III, 509-527.
Working papers
[219] “IMPACT OF SOVEREIGN DEBT MATURITY ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY”, with José Alves, Oļegs Matvejevs, Oļegs Tkacevs, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 358-2023. Latvijas Banka WP 05/2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 10xxx.
[218] “Public Sector Efficiency and the Functions of the Government”, with José Alves, Najat Bazah, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 357-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11xxx.
[217] “Determinants of trade partner concentration: An analysis for European countries”, with José Alves, Lucas Menescal, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 356-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11xxx.
[216] “Public and Private Investments: A VAR Analysis of Their Impact on Economic Growth in 18 Advanced Economies”, with Jorge Caiado, Omar Kanaan, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 350-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11426.
[215] “Fiscal Policy Spillovers in the Euro Area - a new assessment”, with Daniel Loureiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 347-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11406.
[214] “The Role of Global Uncertainty in Shaping Trade Flow Relations: A Cross-Country Analysis for Europe”, with José Alves, Lucas Menescal, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 346-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11401.
[213] “Energy Price Dynamics in the Face of Uncertainty Shocks and the role of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Global Cross-Country Analysis”, with José Alves, João Jalles, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 344-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11384.
[212] “Measuring Tax Burden Efficiency in OECD Countries: an International Comparison”, with Ana Patricia Montes, José M. Domínguez, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 339-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11333.
[211] “The Persistence of Gender Pay and Employment Gaps in European Countries”, with M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 338-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11315.
[210] “Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability?” with Francisco Gomes Pereira, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 335-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11266.
[209] “Echoes of Instability: How Geopolitical Risks Shape Government Debt Holdings”, with José Alves, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 333-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11235.
[208] “The role of fiscal policy rating variables on economic growth in the LDCs”, with M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 331-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11208.
[207] “Budgetary constrained governments: drivers of time varying fiscal sustainability in OECD countries”, with José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 325-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11137.
[206] “Beyond the Centre: Tracing Decentralization’s Influence on Time-varying Fiscal Sustainability”, with José Alves, João Jalles, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 324-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11132.
[205] “Bank’s risk-taking channel of monetary policy and TLTRO: Evidence from the Eurozone”, with Jorge Braga Ferreira, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 320-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11116.
[204] “The pressure is on: how geopolitical tensions impact institutional fiscal and external stability responses”, with José Alves, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 318-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11067.
[203] Afonso, A., Blanco-Arana, M. Carmen (2024). “DOES FINANCIAL INCLUSION ENHANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES?” Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 316-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 11054.
[202] “Sovereign risk dynamics in the EU: the time varying relevance of fiscal and external (im)balances”, with José Alves, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 311-2024. CESifo Working Paper No. 10979.
[201] “Fiscal sustainability: the role of inflation”, with José Alves, Oļegs Matvejevs, Oļegs Tkacevs, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 303-2023. Latvijas Banka WP 08/2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10843.
[200] “On the time-varying impact of China’s bilateral political relations on its trading partners (1960–2022)”, with Valérie Mignon, Jamel Saadaoui, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 301-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10814.
[199] “Beyond Borders: Assessing the Influence of Geopolitical Tensions on Sovereign Risk Dynamics”, with José Alves, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 0300-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10801.
[198] “The nexus between economic freedom and economic growth in the LDCs. An empirical analysis for the period 2000-2021”, with M. Carmen Blanco-Arana, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 0297-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10757.
[197] “Banks’ portfolio of government debt and sovereign risk”, with José Alves, Sofia Monteiro, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 289-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10692.
[196] “Drivers of Fiscal Sustainability: A Time-Varying Analysis for Portugal”, with José Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 287-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10674.
[195] “Monetary surprises shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area”, with José Alves, Serena Ionta, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 284-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10627.
[194] “Consumption patterns of indebted households: unravelling the relevance of fiscal policy”, with Eduardo Rodrigues, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 282-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10565.
[193] “The effects of monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability regimes in the Euro Area”, with José Alves, Serena Ionta, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 281-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10558.
[192] “Banking Regulation and Sovereign Risk: a Paradox”, with André Teixeira, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 272-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10434.
[191] “Government Spending and Tax Revenue Decentralization and Public Sector Efficiency: Do Natural Disasters matter?”, with João Jalles, Ana Venâncio, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 271-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. xxxxx.
[190] “Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability”, with José Alves, José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 255-2023. CESifo Working Paper No. 10225.
[189] “Pay and unemployment determinants of migration flows in the European Union” with José Alves, Krzysztof Beck, Karen Jackson, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 251-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 10131.
[188] “Government spending efficiency in Latin America”, with Gabriela Baquero Fraga, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 250-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 10096.
[187] “A Tale of Government Spending Efficiency and Trust in the State”, with João Jalles, Ana Venâncio, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 253-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 10075.
[186] “Is public investment in construction and in R&D, growth enhancing? A PVAR Approach” with Eduardo Rodrigues, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 249-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 10048.
[185] “Determinants of stock market correlations. Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality in a large panel setting” with Krzysztof Beck, Karen Jackson, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 246-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9956.
[184] “Public finances solvency in the Euro Area: true or false?” with José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 243-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9935.
[183] “Financial, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of cross-country portfolio equity flows” with José Alves, Krzysztof Beck, Karen Jackson, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 235-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9872.
[182] “Are fiscal consolidation episodes helpful for public sector efficiency?” with José Alves, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 230-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9761.
[181] “Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?” with José Alves, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 226-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9738.
[180] “Minimum Wage and Collective Bargaining Reforms: A Narrative Database for Advanced Economies” with João Jalles, Zoe Venter, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 224-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9692.
[179] “Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants” with José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 219-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9635.
[178] “Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area. Impacts on Loans, Employment, and Investment” with Francisco Gomes Pereira, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 218-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9610.
[177] “To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability” with José Alves and João Jalles, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 217-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9618.
[176] “Twin Deficits through the Looking Glass: Time-Varying Analysis in the Euro Area” with José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 211-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9559.
[175] “Local property tax reform and municipality spending efficiency” with Ana Venâncio, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 210-2022. CESifo Working Paper No. 9538.
[174] “Fiscal and current account imbalances: the cases of Germany and Portugal” with José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 208-2021.
[173] “Unemployment and financial development: evidence for OECD countries” with Carmen Blanco Arana, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 204-2021.
[172] “60%, -4% and 6%, a tale of thresholds for EU fiscal and current account developments” with José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 196-2021.
[171] “Current Account Targeting Hypothesis versus Twin Deficit Hypothesis: the EMU experience of Portugal” with José Carlos Coelho, Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 182-2021.
[170] “Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?” with João Jalles, Ana Venâncio. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 166-2021.
[169] “Corruption and economic growth: does the size of the government matter?” with Eduardo Rodrigues. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 164-2021.
[168] “The Role of Fiscal Policies for External Imbalances: Evidence from the European Union” with José Coelho. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 162-2021.
[167] “Does the Introduction of Stock Exchange Markets Boost Economic Growth in African Countries?” with Max Reimers. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 160-2021.
[166] “(Non-) Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Austerity: New Evidence from a large sample”, with José Alves, João Tovar Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 158-2021.
[165] “International transmission of interest rates: the role of international reserves and sovereign debt”, with Florence Huart, João Tovar Jalles, Piotr Stanek. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 156-2021.
[164] “The Interplay between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the EU”, with Alexandre Sousa. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 150-2020.
[163] “Public Debt and Economic Growth in Brazil”, with Sérgio Gadelha, Agatha Silva. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 148-2020.
[162] “Government Spending Efficiency, Measurement and Applications: a Cross-country Efficiency Dataset”, with João Jalles, Ana Venâncio. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 147-2020. Dataset
[161] “Structural Tax Reforms and Public Spending Efficiency”, with João Jalles, Ana Venâncio. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 146-2020.
[160] “The size of government”, with Ludger Schuknecht, Vito Tanzi. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 129-2020.
[159] “Labour Productivity in State-Owned Enterprises”, with Maria João Guedes, Pankaj C. Patal. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 125-2020.
[158] “Sovereign debt crisis in Portugal and in Spain”, with Nuno Verdial. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 112-2019.
[157] “Sovereign Indebtedness and Financial and Fiscal Conditions”, with João Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 111-2019.
[156] “Fiscal episodes in the EMU: Elasticities and non-keynesian effects”, with Frederico Silva Leal. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 097-2019.
[155] “Taxation and Public Spending Efficiency: An International Comparison”, with João Jalles, Ana Venâncio. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 080-2019.
[154] “How “big” should government be?”, with Ludger Schuknecht. EconPol Working Paper 23.
[153] “Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers’ Characteristics with João Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 072-2019.
[155] “Taxation and Public Spending Efficiency: An International Comparison”, with João Jalles, Ana Venâncio. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 080-2019.
[154] “How “big” should government be?” with Ludger Schuknecht. EconPol Working Paper 23.
[153] "Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers' Characteristics ", with João Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 072-2019.
[152] "Local territorial reform and regional spending efficiency ", with Ana Venâncio. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 071-2019.
[151] "The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU ", with João Jalles, Mina Kazemi. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 067-2019.
[150] "Stock Flow Adjustments in Sovereign Debt Dynamics: The Role of Fiscal Frameworks ", with João Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 066-2019.
[149] "The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy to Bank Credit Supply: Evidence from the TLTRO ", with Joana Sousa-Leite. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 065-2019; Banco de Portugal WP 2019-01.
[148] ""THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL AND CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCES IN OECD ECONOMIES", with Philemon Kwame Opoku". Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 061-2018.
[147] "Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads Spillovers in the EMU", with Mina Kazemi. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 052-2018.
[146] "Optimal Tax Structure for Consumption and Income Inequality: an Empirical Assessment", with José Alves. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 051-2018.
[145] "Fiscal Multipliers in the Eurozone: A SVAR Analysis", with Frederico Silva Leal. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 047-2018.
[144] "Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Study for OECD Countries in the Context of Crisis", with M. Carmen Blanco-Arana. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 046-2018.
[143] "Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts' Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area", with João Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 042-2018.
[142] "Government Size, Unemployment, and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies" with António Afonso, Hüseyin Şen, Ayşe Kaya. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 038-2018.
[141] "Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?" with Florence Huart, João Jalles, Piotr Stanek. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 031-2018.
[140] "The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Mozambique", António Afonso, Yasfir Ibraimo, REM, Working Paper 029-2018.
[139] "The Policy Mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR Analysis", António Afonso, Luís Gonçalves. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 028-2018.
[138] "Exchange-traded Funds as an Alternative Investment Option: a Case Study", António Afonso, Pedro Cardoso. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 022-2017.
[137] "Quantitative Easing and Sovereign Yield Spreads: Euro-Area Time-Varying Evidence", António Afonso, João Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 020-2017.
[136] "Do Fiscal Rules Lower Government Financing Costs", António Afonso, João Jalles. Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 015-2017.
[135] "Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-) Significance", António Afonso, João Jalles." Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 016-2017.
[134] "Whatever it takes" to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects", António Afonso, Michael G. Arghyrou, María Dolores Gadea, Alexandros Kontonikas", Research in Economics and Mathematics, REM Working Paper 002-2017. Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Working Paper No. E2017/12.
[133] "Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: The Case of PALOP Economies", António Afonso, Emanuel Reis Leão, Dilson Tiny, Diptes C. P. Bhimjee, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 14/2017/DE/UECE.
[132] "Effects of euro area monetary policy on institutional sectors: the case of Portugal", António Afonso, Jorge Silva, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 15/2017/DE/UECE.
[131] "Euro Area Sovereign Yields and the Power of QE", with Mina Kazemi, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 12/2017/DE/UECE.
[130] "Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union", with Florence Huart, João Jalles, Piotr Stanek, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 10/2017/DE/UECE.
[129] "Sovereign Yield Spreads in the Emu: Crisis and Structural Determinants", with Frederico Silva Leal, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 09/2017/DE/UECE.
[128] "Debt crisis and 10-year sovereign yields in Ireland and in Portugal", with Jorge Silva, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 06/2017/DE/UECE.
[127] "Stock-Flow Adjustments and Interest Rates", with José Alves, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 05/2017/DE/UECE.
[126] "Fiscal Activism and Price Volatility: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 04/2017/DE/UECE.
[125] "Sovereign Debt Effects and Composition: Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 03/2017/DE/UECE.
[124] "Sovereign Credit Rating Mismatches", with André Albuquerque, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 02/2017/DE/UECE.
[123] "THE FISCAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE GOLDEN AGE OF GLOBALIZATION", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 23/2016/DE/UECE.
[122] "Current account balance cyclicality", with Jorge Silva, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 20/2016/DE/UECE.
[121] "Economic Growth and Public and Private Investment Returns", with Miguel St. Aubyn, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 14/2016/DE/UECE
[120] "Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal", with Manish Singh, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 11/2016/DE/UECE.
[119] "Assessing Public Spending Efficiency in 20 OECD Countries", with Mina Kazemi, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 12/2016/DE/UECE.
[118] "Reconsidering Wagner's Law: evidence from the functions of the government", with José Alves, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 09/2016/DE/UECE.
[117] "Revisiting Sovereign Bond Spreads? Determinants in the EMU", with Manuel Reis, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 08/2016/DE/UECE.
[116] "Euro Area Sovereign Debt Crisis and Debt Mutualisation", with Marcelo Alcântara, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 07/2016/DE/UECE.
[115] "Budgetary Decomposition and Yield Spreads", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 05/2016/DE/UECE.
[114] "Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields' Determinants: a Time-Varying Approach", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 04/2016/DE/UECE.
[113] "Determinants of non-resident government debt ownership", with Jorge Silva, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 03/2016/DE/UECE.
[112] "The Price Relevance of Fiscal Developments", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 16/2015/DE/UECE.
[111] "Euro area time varying fiscal sustainability", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 13/2015/DE/UECE.
[110] "Fiscal Episodes, Technological Progress and Market Power", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 09/2015/DE/UECE.
[109] "Markups' Cyclical Behavior: The role of Demand and Supply Shocks," with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 08/2015/DE/UECE.
[108] "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU", with M. Arghyrou and A. Kontonikas. European Central Bank Working Paper nº 1781, April 2015.
[107] "The macro impact of the Portuguese Constitutional Court decisions regarding the budgetary proposals of the Portuguese Budget Law (2012, 2013, 2014)", with Jorge Caiado, Miguel St. Aubyn, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 06/2015/DE/UECECEMAPRE.
[106] "FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: A PANEL ASSESSMENT FOR ADVANCED ECONOMIES," with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 05/2015/DE/UECE.
[105] "The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth," with José Alves, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 16/2014/DE/UECE.
[104] "Interactions between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy," with Raquel Balhote, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 13/2014/DE/UECE.
[103] "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," with Luís Martins, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 12/2014/DE/UECE.
[102] "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations," with António J. Silva, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 10/2014/DE/UECE.
[101] "Causality for the government budget and economic growth" with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 07/2014/DE/UECE.
[100] "Sovereign credit ratings, market volatility, and financial gains", with Pedro Gomes and A. Taamouti. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1654, March 2014, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 06/2014/DE/UECE.
[99] "EU Finance Ministers, Capital Markets and Fiscal Outcomes", with Maria João Guedes. Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 1/2014/DE/UECE/ADVANCE.
[98] "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union", withRui Carvalho. Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 2/2014/DE/UECE.
[97] "The relevance of fiscal rules for fiscal and yield developments", with Ana Sofia Guimarães. Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 5/2014/DE/UECE.
[96] "Contagion in EU Sovereign Yield Spreads", Ana Catarina Félix. Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 4/2014/DE/UECE.
[95] "Public sector efficiency: evidence for Latin America", with Alma Romero and Emma Monsalve. Inter-American Development Bank, 80478, Inter-American Development Bank. Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 19/2013/DE/UECE.
[94] "Assessing productivity performance of basic and secondary education in Tunisia: a Malmquist analysis", with Mohamed Ayadi, and Sourour Ramzi, Department of Economics, ISEG-UL, Working Paper nº 18/2013/DE/UECE.
[93] "The relevance of commuting zones for regional spending efficiency", with Ana Venâncio. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 17/2013/DE/UECE/ADVANCE.
[92] "Fiscal regimes in the EU" , with Priscilla Toffano. European Central Bank Working Paper nº 1529, April 2013. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 10/2013/DE/UECE. KU Leuven, Center for Economic Studies, Discussion Paper DPS13.06.
[91] "Fiscal composition and long-term growth" , with João Jalles. European Central Bank, Working Paper nº 1518, March 2013.
[90] "Assessment of efficiency in basic and secondary education in Tunisia: a regional analysis", with Mohamed Ayadi, and Sourour Ramzi, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 6/2013/DE/UECE.
[89] "On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants", with Michael G. Arghyrou, George Bagdatoglou and Alexandros Kontonikas, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 5/2013/DE/UECE.
[88] "Economic forecasts and sovereign yields", with Ana Sofia Nunes, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 2/2013/DE/UECE.
[87] "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal", Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 1/2013/DE/UECE.
[86] "The fiscal forecasting track record of the European Commission and Portugal", with Jorge Silva, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 37/2012/DE/UECE.
[85] "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU", with Michael G. Arghyrou, and Alexandros Kontonika, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 36/2012/DE/UECE. University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School, Discussion Paper 2012-14.
[84] "The cyclicality of education, health, and social security government spending", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 30/2012/DE/UECE.
[83] "Do fiscal rules matter for growth?" with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 07/2012/DE/UECE.
[82] "Fiscal Volatility, Financial Crises and Growth", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 06/2012/DE/UECE.
[81] "The fiscal-growth nexus" , with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 01/2012/DE/UECE.
[80] "Appraising fiscal reaction functions" , with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 23/2011/DE/UECE.
[79] "Revisiting Fiscal Sustainability: Panel Cointegration and Structural Breaks in OECD countries" , with João Jalles, European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1465, August 2012, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 29/2012/DE/UECE.
[78] "Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations" , with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 22/2011/DE/UECE.
[77] "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainabiliy" , with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 17/2011/DE/UECE.
[76] "Linking investment and fiscal policies" , with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 16/2011/DE/UECE.
[75] "Economic Performance and Government Size: a Political Economy Assessment ", with João Jalles, European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1399, November 2011. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 21/2011/DE/UECE.
[74] "Assessing fiscal episodes ", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 15/2011/DE/UECE.
[73] "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data", with David Furceri, Pedro Gomes. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1347, June 2011. Department of Economics ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 14/2011/DE/UECE.
[72] "Growth and productivity: the role of government debt", with João Jalles, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 13/2011/DE/UECE.
[71] "Revisiting business cycle synchronisation in the European Union", with Ana Sequeira, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 22/2010/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[70] "Level, Slope, Curvature of the Sovereign Yield Curve, and Fiscal Behaviour", with Manuel Martins, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 23/2010/DE/UECE. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1276, December 2010. (on IDEAS)
[69] "Do fiscal imbalances deteriorate sovereign debt ratings?", with Pedro Gomes, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 24/2010/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[68] "Long-run Determinants of Sovereign Yields", with Christophe Rault. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 41/2009/DE/UECE. CESIfo Working Paper 3155, August 2010. (on IDEAS)
[67] "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis", with Jaromír Baxa and Michal Slavik, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 11/2011/DE/UECE. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1319, April 2011. (on IDEAS)
[66] "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal", with Peter Claeys and Ricardo Sousa, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 41/2009/DE/UECE. University of Minho, NIPE WP 25/2009. University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics IREA Working Paper 2009/21. (on IDEAS)
[65] "Long-term Government Bond Yields and Economic Forecasts: Evidence for the EU", Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 38/2009/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[64] "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields", with Christophe Rault, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 19/2010/DE/UECE. CESIfo Working Paper 3249, November 2010. (on IDEAS)
[63] "Consumption, Wealth, and Stock and Bond Returns: International Evidence", with Ricardo Sousa. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 9/2011/DE/UECE. Universidade do Minho, NIPE WP 09/2011. (on IDEAS)
[62] "Fiscal Policy and Growth: Do Financial Crises make a Difference?" with Hans P. Grüner and Christina Kolerus, European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1217, June 2010. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 10/2010/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS
[61] "Market Power and Fiscal Policy in OECD countries", with Luís Costa. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1173, April 2010. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 11/2010/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[60] "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU", with Christophe Rault. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 02/2009/DE/UECE. CESifo Working Paper nº 2581. (on IDEAS)
[59] "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis", with Ricardo Sousa. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 09/2009/DE/UECE. University of Minho, NIPE WP 03/2009. (on IDEAS)
[58] "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: evidence from Portugal", with Ricardo Sousa. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 03/2009/DE/UECE. University of Minho, NIPE WP 01/2009. (on IDEAS)
[57] "Public and Private Inputs in Aggregate Production and Growth: A Cross-country Efficiency Approach ", with Miguel St. Aubyn. , European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1154, February 2010. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 09/2010/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[56] "Bootstrap panel Granger-causality between government spending and revenue ", with Christophe Rault. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 39/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[55] "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach", with Luca Agnello, Davide Furceri and Ricardo Sousa. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1032, March 2009. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 19/2009/DE/UECE. Universidade do Minho, NIPE WP 07/2009. (on IDEAS)
[54] "Fiscal Policy, Housing and Stock Prices", with Ricardo Sousa. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 990, January 2009. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 58/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[53] "Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence, and Discretion", with Luca Agnello and Davide Furceri, European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 954, November 2008. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 50/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[52] "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy", with Ricardo Sousa. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 991, January 2009. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 56/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS )
[51] "Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic", with Christophe Rault, European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 961, November 2008. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 45/2008/DE/UECE. CESifo Working Paper No. 2559. (on IDEAS)
[50] "Interactions between private and public sector wages", with Pedro Gomes, European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 971, November 2008. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 55/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[49] "Fiscal behaviour in the European Union: rules, fiscal decentralization and government indebtedness", with Sebastian Hauptmeier. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 1054, May 2009. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 23/2009/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[48] "Euler testing Ricardo and Barro in the EU", Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 23/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[47] "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union", with Christophe Rault. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 908, June 2008. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 35/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[46] "Assessing Hospital Efficiency: Non-parametric Evidence for Portugal", with Sónia Fernandes, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 07/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[45] "Income Distribution Determinants and Public Spending Efficiency," with Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 861, January 2008. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 05/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[44] "Economic Growth and Budgetary Components: a Panel Assessment for the EU", with Juan González Alegre. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 29/2007/DE/UECE. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 848, January 2008. (on IDEAS)
[43] "Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?" with Christophe Rault. William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 903 November 2007. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 01/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[42] "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," with Christophe Rault. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 820, October 2007. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 20/2007/DE/UECE. William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 893 October 2007. Laboratoire d'Economie d' Orléans, Document de Recherche 2008-03. (on IDEAS)
[41] "Government Size, Composition, Volatility, and Economic Growth", with Davide Furceri. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 849, January 2008. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 04/2008/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[40] "Business Cycle Synchronization and Insurance Mechanisms in the EU", with Davide Furceri. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 844, December 2007. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 26/2007/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[39] "Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Public and Private Investment: Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects", with Miguel St. Aubyn. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 864, February 2008. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 07/2008/DE/UECE (on IDEAS)
[38] "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output," with Peter Claeys. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 775, July 2007. (on IDEAS)
[37] "Public finances in Portugal: a brief long-run view". Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 1/2007/DE/CISEP/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[36] "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union", with Davide Furceri. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 2/2007/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[35] "What "Hides" Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?" with Pedro Gomes and Philipp Rother. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 711, January 2007. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 35/2006/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[34] "Ordered Response Models for Sovereign Debt Ratings",with Pedro Gomes and Philipp Rother. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 34/2006/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[33] "Relative Efficiency of Health Provision: a DEA Approach with Non-discretionary Inputs", with Miguel St. Aubyn. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 33/2006/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[32] "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence". European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 675, September 2006. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 18/2006/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[31] "The dynamic behaviour of budget components and output - the cases of France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain," with Peter Claeys. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 26/2006/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[30] "An Assessment of Telecommunications Regulation Performance in the European Union", with Carla Scaglioni. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 07/2006/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[29] "Excess burden and the cost of inefficiency in public services provision," European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 601, april 2006, with Vítor Gaspar. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 05/2006/DE/UECE. Banco de Portugal, Working Paper nº 9-2006. (on IDEAS)
[28] "Public Sector Efficiency: Evidence for New EU Member States and Emerging Markets," with Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 581, January 2006. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 01/2006/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[27] "Assessing and Explaining the Relative Efficiency of Local Government: Evidence for Portuguese Municipalities," with Sónia Fernandes, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 19/2005/DE/UECE. (on IDEAS)
[26] "Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union," European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 558, November 2005. ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 18/2005/DE/CISEP. (on IDEAS)
[25] "Students and Teachers: A DEA Approach to the Relative Efficiency of Portuguese Public Universities," with Mariana Santos, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 07/2005/DE/CISEP. (on SSRN)
[24] "Cross-country Efficiency of Secondary Education Provision: a Semi-parametric Analysis with Non-discretionary Inputs," with Miguel St. Aubyn, European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 494, June 2005. ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 05/2005/DE/CISEP/UECE. (on SSRN)
[23] "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries," with Philipp Rother and Christiane Nickel. European Central Bank, Working Paper n. 473, April 2005. ISEG-UTL, Department of Economics, Working Paper nº 3/2005/DE/CISEP. ( on SSRN )
[22] "Public Services Efficiency Provision in Italian Regions: a Non-Parametric Analysis," with Carla Scaglioni. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 02/2005/DE/CISEP. (on SSRN)
[21] "Quality of public finances and growth," with Werner Ebert, Ludger Schuknecht and Michael Thöne, ECB Working Paper 438, February 2005. (on SSRN)
[20] "Public Tertiary Education Expenditure in Portugal: a Non-Parametric Efficiency Analysis," with Mariana Santos. Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 05/2004/DE/CISEP. (on SSRN)
[19] "Non-parametric Approaches to Education and Health Expenditure Efficiency in OECD Countries", with Miguel St. Aubyn, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 1/2004/DE/CISEP/UECE. (on SSRN)
[18] " Fiscal Policy Events and Interest Rate Swap Spreads: some Evidence from the EU", with Rolf Strauch, ECB Working Paper 303, February 2004.
[17] "Efficiency of Portuguese Local Government Spending: Evidence for the Lisbon Region", Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 9/2003/DE/CISEP. (on SSRN)
[16] " Public Sector Efficiency: an International Comparison," with Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi, ECB Working Paper 242, July 2003.
[15] "Intermediaries, Financial Markets and Growth: Some more International Evidence", with Raquel Ferreira,Edmund Freitas,Celso Nóbrega, and José Pinheiro," Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 2/2003/DE/CISEP. (on EconPapers)
[14] "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 2/2002/DE/CISEP. ( on EconPapers)
[13] "Disturbing the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Can it Fit the EU-15?" Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 1/2002/DE/CISEP. ( on EconPapers)
[11] "Government Indebtedness and European Consumers Behaviour," Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 12/2001/DE/CISEP. ( on EconPapers)
[10] "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in EU-15," Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 7/2001/DE/CISEP. ( on EconPapers)
[9] "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 12/2000/DE/CISEP. ( on EconPapers)
[5] "Non-linear Tests of Weakly Efficient Markets: Evidence from Portugal," with João Teixeira, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 6/98, April, 1998. (on SSRN)
[4 ] " Uma Nota sobre o Value at Risk: Conceitos e Utilização na Banca Portuguesa," Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 1/98, January, 1998. Abstract
[3] " Is There Credit Rationing in Portuguese Banking?" with Miguel St. Aubyn, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 6/97, October, 1997. Abstract
[2] " The Economics of Budget Deficits and Public Debt", Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 5/97, October, 1997. Abstract
[1] " Efficiency in Portuguese Stock Exchange Indexes: Runs Tests and BDS Statistic," with João Teixeira, Department of Economics, ISEG-UTL, Working Paper nº 2/97, April, 1997. Abstract
Thesis and other academic reports
[5] Economia Monetária e Financeira. Programa, conteúdo e métodos pedagógicos [Monetary and Financial Economics. Syllabus, contents and pedagogical methods]. ISEG/UTL, Lisbon, October 2008. Partial requirement for the competition for Associate Professor at ISEG, Group I - Economics (Edital n.º 836/2008, Diário da República, 2.ª série - N.º 155 - 12 de Agosto de 2008)
[4] Consolidações Orçamentais Expansionistas: Teoria e Evidência [Expansionist Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence]. ISEG/UTL, Lisbon, September 2004. Partial requirement for the Agregação(Portuguese post-doctoral degree) in Economics at ISEG/UTL, according to the Decree-Law n. 301/72 of 14 August.
[3] Política Orçamental na UEM. Programa, conteúdo e métodos pedagógicos [Fiscal Policy in EMU. Syllabus, contents and pedagogical methods]. ISEG/UTL, Lisbon, September 2004. Partial requirement for the Agregação (Portuguese post-doctoral degree) in Economics at ISEG/UTL, according to the Decree-Law n. 301/72 of 14 August.
[2] Ensaios sobre Política Orçamental (Essays on Fiscal Policy), May 2002. Ph. D. thesis. Supervisor: Jorge Santos. Abstract
[1] Défices Públicos e Inflação (Public Deficits and Inflation), October 1992. Master's thesis. Supervisor: Vítor Constâncio. Abstract
Refereeing
American Economic Review; Applied Economics; Applied Economics Quarterly; Banco de España WP Series; Contemporary Economic Policy; ECB Working Papers Series; Economic Modelling; Economics Bulletin; Empirica ; Estudos de Economia; European Economic Review; European Journal of Political Economy; European Review of Economics and Finance; FinanzArchiv; Global Finance Journal; International Tax and Public Finance; Journal of Applied Economics; Journal of Common Markets Studies; Journal of Economic Inequality; Journal of Economics and Business; Journal of Empirical Finance; Journal of International Economics and Economic Policy; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Journal of Productivity Analysis; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Choice, Public Finance and Management; Review of Development Economics; World Development.
Research interests
Fiscal policy; Applied economics; Macroeconomics; Financial economics.
Membership in professional societies and research centres
American Economic Association;
Canadian Economics Association;
Euro Area Business Cycle Network (EABCN);
European Economic Association;
International Institute of Public Finance;
Ordem dos Economistas (Portuguese Economists Association);
UECE - Research Unit on Complexity and Economics;
REM - Research in Economics and MAthematics.