Six out of 10 people are struggling with their monthly housing costs and two thirds identify the need for urgent repairs or improvements to their home, concludes the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation's barometer. The Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation (FFMS) announced that, "continuing its mission to deepen knowledge about the Portuguese reality and provide scientific bases that promote debate and contribute to decision-making that defines the country's future", it is launching the foundation's barometers today. The first barometer, focused on the housing crisis in Portugal, aims to provide "more and better data on the conditions in which families live, the needs and difficulties they face, and their perceptions and convictions" on the subject, the foundation said in a statement. The Housing Barometer surveyed 1,086 people, a representative sample of the Portuguese population in terms of gender, age and NUTS II region (nomenclature of territorial units for statistical purposes), in a survey carried out by the company Domp, which resulted in a report by Alda Azevedo (ICS - Institute of Social Sciences) and João Pereira dos Santos (ISEG - Higher Institute of Economics and Management), from the University of Lisbon. According to a note from the FFMS on the results, to which Lusa had access, the population surveyed has lived in their current home for an average of 20 years and, in terms of housing occupancy, the majority live in their own home (66.4%), with 31.2% of these on a loan. Among the renters (17.21 PT3T), one in six does not have a written contract and 13.31 PT3T live in a house "given away, free of charge (inherited, borrowed, family home, on salary)" and 21 PT3T rent from a public entity or equivalent (municipality, state or third sector entity). Regarding the average monthly cost of a bank loan or rent, despite strong regional differences, households with costs (51%) "spend an average of 573 euros per month on a fixed loan or rent" and private sector tenants have the highest costs (679 euros/month). The report concluded that "621,000,000 of these households, i.e. six out of every 10 people, experience some degree of difficulty in meeting their monthly housing costs and 131,000,000, i.e. one out of every eight, experience great difficulty in making ends meet". "The majority of respondents (81%) say they are satisfied with the house they live in, but two-thirds identify urgent repairs or improvements that need to be made to their home," the study pointed out, adding that at the top of the list are the need to insulate windows or doors (15.1%), repair leaks or damp situations in the ceiling and walls (10.7%) and paint walls (9.9%). Regarding the risk of losing their current home and the solution to this possibility, "one in nine respondents (12%) think they are at risk of losing their home in the next five years, due to an increase in rent or mortgage installments (50%) or on the landlord's initiative (28%)". If they had to move out of the house they live in, 33.91% of respondents said they "would have nowhere else to go, i.e. they would need some form of social support", while 33.11% of respondents said they would rent a house, 14.21% of respondents would live with relatives, 8.71% of respondents would buy a house, and 7.91% of respondents would live with people outside the family. When asked about the constraints posed by difficulties in accessing housing since 2015, more than one in four respondents (271 FTE) said that "access to housing has already constrained life decisions, with an average of two life decisions constrained", a percentage that "is higher among renters and younger people (361 FTE for the 18-34 age group and 331 FTE for the 35-54 age group)". The most constraining life decisions were changing place of residence (34.91 PT3T), moving out of their parents' house (31.51 PT3T), moving out on their own (28.11 PT3T) and getting married or moving in with a partner (25.71 PT3T). The respondents also mentioned, albeit to a lesser extent, the decisions to have their first child (15.11 FTE) or another child (9.91 FTE), get a job (14.41 FTE) or change jobs (131 FTE) and emigrate (9.21 FTE). The universe of the survey, of residents in mainland Portugal, aged 18 or over, is made up of 521 PT3T males and 481 PT3T females, with an average age of 51.7 years, and 381 PT3T of the sample have higher education, 361 PT3T secondary education, 91 PT3T have studied up to the 9th grade, and the fieldwork took place between August 14 and September 17. These and other data from the Housing Barometer are available from 09:00 on the FFMS website. Lusa

Sweden is experiencing the biggest housing crisis since the 1990s, but although the mood is changing in Europe, Portugal is still far from being affected, according to analysts consulted by Lusa. The number of houses sold on the Swedish market has been falling - between May and July 13,800 houses and 23,000 condominiums were sold, a drop of 12% compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Svensk Mäklarsamfundet brokerage, along with a fall in asset prices and more expensive credit. The Swedish real estate crisis has set off alarm bells among analysts who recall the crisis in that country in the 1990s, which dragged down the financial system. However, the reality in Portugal is different: "We're a long way from a mirror. We don't expect this real estate slump in the next few years," says Hugo Santos Ferreira, president of the Portuguese Association of Real Estate Developers and Investors (APPII), speaking to Lusa. Economist and ISEG professor João Duque told Lusa that the evolution of prices and transactions in the European real estate market shows that there has been a negative trend since the fourth quarter of last year. João Duque explains that although there is still an overall positive variation in the European house price index, calculated by Eurostat, when comparing the levels of this index with those of the corresponding period of the previous year there are some markets where there is already a marked negative variation: Sweden -6.9%, Germany -6.8%, Denmark -6.2% or Finland -5.1%. "It's clear that there are markets where investors are still looking for a great deal, perhaps due to the lack of interesting and attractive alternatives because of the conditions granted by the local authorities or because prices are still low and expectations of economic dynamism are high (Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia, Hungary, Estonia, Bulgaria or even Portugal)," he says. On the other hand, the statistics show that the transaction market "is cooling sharply across Europe", he says, pointing out that - out of a sample of 14 European countries that provided data to Eurostat - 13 markets recorded falls in the first quarter, ranging from -50% in Finland to -8% in Bulgaria, with Portugal recording a fall of -25% in housing transactions. "The environment is changing in Europe. Interest rate rises are holding back demand, which is to be expected. The question is whether the supply is comfortable with the property, even if it's vacant, or whether that state or the rise in interest rates is forcing a hasty sale," he says. João Duque points out that "in Europe, real estate investment seems to be in a recession", since "in addition to the housing market falling in terms of both prices and transactions, economic activity is contracting, which doesn't bode well for demand for commercial or office space", in addition to "the readjustment process that many companies may have to make in the face of increasingly established teleworking". However, economist and professor at Nova SBE Pedro Brinca, despite telling Lusa that "there is a correction taking place in international markets", an example of which is Sweden, believes that Portugal is still an exception. "I'm not shocked that the price correction is not the same as that seen in countries like New Zealand, Canada, Portugal or others," he said. Hugo Santos Ferreira points out that the most recent data released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) indicates that "houses [in Portugal] have continued to rise in value, even though there have been fewer valuations", which immediately represents "a difference with Sweden". "We continue to have an unbalanced market, in which there is a lot of demand and little supply," he stresses, arguing that it is "important not to let there be a devaluation of assets". The president of the APPII argues that if assets start to devalue as they did in Sweden - which he doesn't expect to happen - household wealth decreases, economic, financial and banking risk increases and foreign direct investment (FDI) also falls. Despite the Swedish real estate crisis, Pedro Brinca believes that the country has the tools to respond to the challenge: "Sweden has, in terms of budgetary position, the capacity to intervene in the sector to leverage any problems in the financial sector, as well as having its own currency. It gives them another type of weapon that Portugal doesn't have," he said. Lusa

The National Statistics Institute (INE) today released its flash estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter, after the economy grew by 2.6% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter. Economists consulted by Lusa predict that in the second quarter, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow between 2.3% and 2.6% year-on-year and between 0% and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. Speaking to Lusa, BPI's chief economist, Paula Carvalho, pointed to a GDP expansion in the second quarter of 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, considering that "the main drivers should be divided between exports, consumption and also investment". For her part, Márcia Rodrigues, an economist at Millennium bcp, predicts growth of 0.1% for the second quarter of 2023, "which represents a very significant slowdown compared to the growth of 1.6% seen in the previous quarter", and year-on-year growth of 2.4%. "The lower dynamism of the Portuguese economy in the second quarter is likely to reflect, above all, the slowdown in exports of goods, against a backdrop of a sharp reduction in external demand, particularly from euro area countries, whose activity may have contracted for the third consecutive quarter," he explains, even though tourism continues to grow. The NECEP - Católica Lisbon Forecasting Lab's projections point to a zero quarter-on-quarter change and growth of 2.3% year-on-year. In turn, the monthly barometer on the economic situation carried out by CIP - Confederação Empresarial de Portugal and ISEG - Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão predicts that the Portuguese economy will have grown by 2.6% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter. The government's official forecast, included in the Stability Program, points to GDP growth of 1.8% for the whole year, but the Finance Minister has already admitted that it will be higher, with the target to be revised in the State Budget for 2024 (OE2024), which will be presented in October. Lusa

The Portuguese economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023, according to the first monthly barometer on the economic climate, carried out by CIP - Confederação Empresarial de Portugal and ISEG - Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, released today. "Based on the partial information available, it is considered more likely that year-on-year growth in the 2nd quarter will remain at the same level as that recorded in the 1st quarter, which corresponds to a relatively small chain growth, but at the same level as that recorded in the second half of the previous year," the document reads. Expectations for the 2nd quarter "allow us to consolidate the forecast of annual growth for 2023 of between 2.1% and 2.9%, centered on 2.5%", the barometer states. CIP and ISEG's forecast for 2023 is higher than that predicted by the government in the Stability Program (1.8%), but lower than that put forward by the Bank of Portugal (2.7%). This is the first business climate barometer resulting from a protocol between CIP and ISEG, which includes economic climate indicators, sectoral and consumer confidence indicators, the industrial production index, turnover in services and retail trade and the evolution of the trend indicator and expectations for the following quarter. In the monthly barometer for May, CIP and ISEG highlight the drop in confidence indicators for all sectors and the reduction in the industrial production index, which, they stress, "underpins fears about Portugal's economic development". "With inflation decelerating, the biggest negative risk factor for Portugal seems to be the cooling of growth in Germany and the Euro Area and the duration of this cooling," they point out. However, they add: "Investment growth until the end of the year could contribute to higher growth in Portugal." In a statement, the president of CIP, Armindo Monteiro, emphasized that the barometer aims to "gather concrete information on the economy" to allow "economic and political decision-makers" to find in the document "a scientifically robust basis for making decisions and anticipating trends and problems". João Duque, Professor of Finance and President of ISEG, stresses that the partnership with CIP "will allow us to broaden the scope of this information on the pulse of the economic situation, gearing it even more towards the interests of economic decision-makers, while maintaining the same scientific rigor". Lusa