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João Tovar Jalles

Senior Associate Professor
Department
Economics
Scientific Area
Macroeconomics
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Biography

João Tovar Jalles, a Portuguese national, is a Senior Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Lisbon. Previously, he was a Senior Economist at the Portuguese Public Finance Council. Before that he spent 5 years at the IMF: 1 year in the Research Department and 4 years in the Fiscal Affairs Department, where he participated in negotiation and review missions to Senegal and Georgia. Before joining the Fund, João was the Economist of the Brazil-Portugal Desk at the OECD’s Economics Department and before that a Fiscal Economist at the ECB’s Fiscal Policies Division (where he was part of the Troika team for Portugal). Academically, he was an Invited Lecturer at Sciences Po (France), Assistant Professor at the University of Aberdeen (UK) and he also taught at the University of Cambridge (UK) and Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal).
João´s main research interest is applied macroeconomics, more specifically fiscal policy/public finance, structural reforms, macro-financial linkages, assessment of forecasts and energy economics.
João is among the top 1% economic authors in the World (Rank: [250 out of 67233]) (and, consequently, top 1% in Europe/Portugal) based on IDEAS database´s last 10-year publications (the largest bibliographic database dedicated to Economics). He has written extensively having published more than 150 academic papers in refereed journals such as: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Oxford Economic Papers, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of International Money and Finance, Economics Letters, Regional Studies, Energy Economics. João holds a B.Sc. in Economics from Universidade Nova de Lisboa (Portugal), a M.Sc. in Economics from the University of Warwick (UK), a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Cambridge (UK) and a Habilitation Degree ("Agregação") from Universidade de Lisboa.

Education

2023 Aggregation, Economy, Economics
Universidade de Lisboa, ISEG (Portugal)
2011 Philosophiae Doctor , Economie, Economia
University of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
2008 Master of Science, Economie, Economia
Universidade de Warwick (UK) (United Kingdom)
2006 Bachelor of Science, Economie, Economia
Fac. Econ. Univ. Nova Lisboa (Portugal)

Publications & Citations

Journal article
Year Title / Publication Link
2024 Beyond the Centre: Tracing Decentralization’s Influence on Time-varying Fiscal Sustainability
International Review of Economics & Finance
2023 Minimum Wage and Collective Bargaining Shocks: A Narrative Database for Advanced Economies
IZA Journal of Labor Policy
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2023 For Whom the Bell Tolls: Climate Change and Income Inequality
Energy Policy
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2023 Drivers of the Tax Effort: Evidence from a Large Panel
Comparative Economic Studies
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2023 Tax evasion from cross-border fraud: does digitalization make a difference?
Applied Economics Letters
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2022 Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?
Journal of International Money and Finance
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2022 Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money
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2022 To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
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2022 The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample
Economic Systems
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2022 Fiscal Reaction Functions in the EU: A Tale of “r-g” and Whether it Matters
Revue Française d'Economie
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2022 This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds
Energy Economics
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2022 Heterogeneous Gains from Counter-cyclical Fiscal Policy: New Evidence from International Industry-level data
Oxford Economic Papers
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2022 Labor and Product Market Reforms and External Imbalances: Evidence from Advanced Economies
Journal of International Money and Finance
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2022 Private and Public Consumption: Substitutes or Complements?
Oxford Economic Papers
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2022 Do Tax Reforms affect Income Distribution? Evidence from Developing Countries
Economic Modelling
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2022 Can Covid-19 Induce Governments to Implement Tax Reforms in Developing Countries?
Applied Economics
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2022 Trend and Cycles in CO2 Emissions and Growth: Cross-country Evidence on Decoupling
Journal of Macroeconomics
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2022 Do Credit Rating Agencies reward Fiscal Prudence?
International Finance
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2022 Tax Buoyancy in Sub-Saharan Africa and its determinants
International Tax and Public Finance
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2022 Emissions and Output: Decoupling Evidence from Brazilian States
Journal of Developing Areas
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2022 An Apocalypse Foretold: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Defaults
Open Economies Review
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2021 Heterogeneous Gains from Counter-cyclical Fiscal Policy: New Evidence from International Industry-level data
Oxford Economic Papers
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2021 Structural tax reforms and public spending efficiency
Open Economies Review
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2021 Taxation and public spending efficiency: An international comparison,
Comparative Economic Studies
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2021 Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment
Comparative Economic Studies
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2021 Recessions and Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from Sectoral data
Economic Modelling
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2021 Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates: Does Politics Matter?
Scottish Journal of Political Economy
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2021 Dynamics of Government Spending Cyclicality
Economic Modelling
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2021 Tax Capacity and Growth in the Asia-Pacific Region
Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy
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2021 Globalization, Freedoms and Economic convergence: an empirical exploration of a trivariate relationship using a large panel
International Economics and Economic Policy
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2020 Economic Volatility and Sovereign Yields' Determinants: a Time-Varying Approach
Empirical Economics
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2020 Emissions and Economic Development in Commodity Exporting Countries
Energy Economics
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2020 Job Protection Deregulation in Good and Bad Times
Oxford Economic Papers
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2020 The effects of Macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads
International Review of Law and Economics
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2020 On the Performance of US Fiscal Forecasts: Government vs. Private Information
Journal of Economic Studies
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2020 The Impact of Financial Crises on the Environment in Developing Countries
Annals of Finance
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2020 The volatility impact of social expenditure’s cyclicality in advanced economies
Economic Analysis and Policy
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2020 Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies
Economic Systems
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2020 Stock Flow Adjustments in Sovereign Debt Dynamics: The role of Fiscal Frameworks
International Review of Economics and Finance
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2020 Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU
Portuguese Economic Journal
2020 Emissions and Economic Growth in Commodity Exporting Countries
Energy Economics
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2020 A New Look into Fiscal Countercyclicality: Expectations, Shocks, and the Business Cycle
FinanzArchiv
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2019 Assessing the Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Union
The World Economy
2019 Quantitative Easing and Sovereign Yield Spreads: Euro-Area Time-Varying Evidence
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money
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2019 The Global Crisis and Intergovernmental Relations: Centralisation vs. decentralisation Ten Years On
Regional Studies
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2019 A Note on Inflation Dynamics, Price Volatility and Fiscal Activism
Macroeconomic Dynamics
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2019 Explaining Africa’s Public Consumption Procyclicality: Revisiting Old Evidence
International Finance
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2019 Sovereign indebtedness and financial and fiscal conditions
Applied Economics Letters
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2019 On the Determinants of the Okun’s Law: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates
Comparative Economic Studies
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2019 The Fiscal Consequences of Deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
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2019 Sovereign Ratings and Finance Ministers' Characteristics
ECONOMICS BULLETIN
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2019 Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU
Portuguese Economic Journal
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2019 Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs
Fiscal Studies
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2019 Fiscal Reaction Functions Across the World: A Battle of Statistical (In-)Significance
FinanzArchiv
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2019 An Assessment of the IMF’s Unemployment Forecasts
Manchester School
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2019 Crises and emissions: New empirical evidence from a large sample
Energy Policy
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2019 Cross‐country evidence on the determinants of inclusive growth episodes
Review of Development Economics
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2019 Decoupling of emissions and GDP: Evidence from aggregate and provincial Chinese data
Energy Economics
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2019 Do IMF forecasts respect Okun’s law? Evidence for advanced and developing economies
International Journal of Forecasting
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2019 Fiscal counter-cyclicality and productive investment: evidence from advanced economies
B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics: Advances/Contributions/Frontiers/Topics in Macroeconomics
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2019 How Do Macroeconomic Fundamentals Affect Sovereign Bond Yields? New Evidence from European Forecasts
CESifo Economic Studies
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2019 Monetary Aggregates and Macroeconomic Performance: The Portuguese Escudo 1911–1999
International Economic Journal
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2019 Wagner’s law and governments’ functions: granularity matters
Journal of Economic Studies
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2018 Decomposing and Analysing the Determinants of Current Accounts' Cyclicality: Evidence from the Euro Area
Open Economies Review
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2018 European Commission’s Fiscal Forecasts in CEE countries: a Thorough Assessment
Journal of Economic Policy Reform
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Paper presented at academic or professional meetings
Year Title / Publication Link
2021 Do financial markets reward public spending efficiency?
2021 Do financial markets reward public spending efficiency?
2020 Taxation and public spending efficiency: An international comparison
2020 Structural tax reforms and public spending efficiency

Teaching

Semester Course Degree Coordinator
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Análise da Informação Económica e Empresarial Licenciatura Bolonha em Estudos Gerais - Estudos Gerais, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Management, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Economia Monetária e Financeira Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Management, Licenciatura Bolonha em Gestão - Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão - Matemática Aplicada à Economia e à Gestão, Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economia No
Macroeconomics I Licenciatura Bolonha em Economia - Economics No
Macroeconomia I Licenciatura Bolonha em Finanças - Finanças No

Year Student Name / Title / Institution Supervision Type Link
2023/2024 RUDOLFS BOJARS
Renewable Energy Adoption Across Business Cycles
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master Ver
2022/2023 JOÃO FRANCISCO COELHO SILVESTRE
Crises and Financial Stress: an empirical exploration
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master
2022/2023 FADY ATEF HALIM HANNA
Globalization, Crises and Economic Growth
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master Ver
2021/2022 MATTHIAS HEZEL
Structural Reforms and Climate Change
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master Ver
2021/2022 MADALENA COSTA SANTOS IVO DE CARVALHO
The dilemma of ghost fishing: a leniency program application
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Master Ver
2020/2021 MATTHIAS HEZEL
Structural Reforms and Climate Change
Master
2020/2021 FRANCISCA SAMPAIO XAVIER DE OLIVEIRA
The Impact of Pandemics on Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions
Master Ver
2020/2021 ROMY CAROLINE HOREMAN
How will Covid19 affect Tourism: Evidence from Past Pandemics
Master Ver

Professional Experience

Name / Description Date Organization
Senior Economist
2019 - 2020 PORTUGUESE PUBLIC FINANCE COUNCIL
Invited Lecturer of Economics
2012 - 2014 Sciences Po
Assistant Professor of Economics
2011 - 2012 University of Aberdeen
Teaching Assistant and Teaching Fellow
2009 - 2010 Cambridge University
Teaching Assistant
2006 - 2007 Fac. Econ. Univ. Nova Lisboa