THE IMPACT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC EVOLUTION ON THE PORTUGUESE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS

This dissertation provides an analysis of the impacts of the demographic evolution on the Portuguese Social Welfare System, more specifically on the Sistema Previdencial, focusing fundamentally on the issue of the system's financial sustainability. For this purpose, a study which presents three forecasts of demographic evolution over the period 2015 and 2080 was considered and the impact that these three alternatives would potentially have been investigated, assuming that the current conditions and legislation remained unchanged until 2080. The findings suggest that the social security revenue derived from contributions from individuals and their employers will be lower than the pension obligations for some years to come, regardless of the demographic scenario considered.