The COVID-19 Recession in Germany: A Macro-Epidemiological Analysis

This dissertation develops a macro-epidemiological model to identify the primary drivers of output fluctuations in Germany during the Covid-19 pandemic. It reveals that the consumption and labour-supply effects of containment policies and endogenous re- sponses of households to pandemic-associated health risks can account for practically all output dynamics in Germany between the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. Whereas containment policies are found to be responsible for especially large output losses during the pandemic, endogenous household responses appear to play a complementary role. Nevertheless, a laissez-faire response to the pandemic would poten- tially not have avoided a sizeable recession either, while leading to substantially higher losses in human life.