The linkages betweent fiscal imbalances and current account imbalances

This study re-examines the nexus between the fiscal balance and the current account balance for 18 OECD countries for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q1 using a variety of econometric methods: panel cointegration, panel regressions, Granger?s causality test and panel vector autoregressive (VAR) methods. The econometric methodologies applied in the study enables us to further understand the so called ?Twin Deficit Hypothesis?. The results of the estimations indicate that a strengthening in the fiscal balance by one percentage point of GDP leads to an improvement in the current account balance of about 0.1-0.3 percentage point of GDP. The impact of the real effective exchange rate on such an association is not significant. The findings also indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the fiscal balance and the current account balance.