FIVE YEAR EMIGRATION FORECAST

As Portugal continues to undergo significant demographic and economic transformations, the study of emigration patterns and forecasting their future trajectories has become of paramount importance. This dissertation delves into the multifaceted realm of emigration rate from Portugal, aiming to provide insight numbers for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders involved in shaping the country’s migration policies and integration strategies. The study employs a comprehensive approach, drawing on historical emigration data between 1960 and 2022, to construct a forecast model that predicts the emigration rate numbers in Portugal over the coming 5 years. The methodology involves a combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses, including time series analysis and use of statistical software – for exponential smoothing, ARMA, ARIMA and ARIMA-X models application. Tests were made to determine whether the data had a unit root or not, so that the correct predicting model could be applied. Ultimately, ARIMA-X model proved to be the most suiting one in forecasting the next five years, obtaining an 7.28% emigration rate in 2028.