THE IMPACT OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ON SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION IN ALBERTA, CANADA

This study investigates the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation in Alberta, Canada, over a five-year period. As Alberta increasingly leverages its high solar potential to meet renewable energy demand, it is confronting the effects of climate change, particularly the escalating frequency and severity of wildfires and associated smoke emissions. Smoke has the potential to impede solar irradiation, thereby posing a significant challenge to solar energy production. Understanding the complex interaction between wildfire smoke and solar energy production is crucial for effective renewable energy planning and electricity grid management in the province. This study develops a Random Forest Regression model to forecast solar energy generation in Alberta. It incorporates PM2.5 measurements as indicators of wildfire smoke, alongside environmental parameters with strong predictive potential such as Global Horizontal Irradiance, and simulated solar energy generation data from current and future grid-connected solar sites in the province. The model is later used to isolate for the impact of smoke on solar power generation within the province. It is important to note that this study encompasses completed, proposed, and under-construction projects, as well as estimated financial data. Its aim is to assess the potential impact of smoke on Alberta's solar photovoltaic production potential, rather than provide a retrospective evaluation of historical events. Findings reveal an average 6.37% decrease in solar power production during periods of moderate to severe smoke, as compared to periods without smoke present, and that severe smoke levels are responsible for 76% of all losses. These results offer critical insights into the challenges and opportunities for renewable energy development in wildfire-prone regions and emphasize the need for proactive strategies to mitigate the impacts of extreme smoke concentrations on solar energy generation.