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Seminários e Conferências

ISEG Research Seminars ’25 | Jonathan de Quidt

25 Mar 2025 from 13:00 to 14:00
ISEG, Anfiteatro 3 (Edifício Quelhas)

Na próxima terça-feira, dia 25 de março, entre as 13h00 e as 14h00, o Anfiteatro 3 do ISEG (Edifício Quelhas, 4º Piso) recebe mais uma sessão do 2º Semestre dos ISEG Research Seminars.

O seminário terá como speaker Jonathan de Quidt, da Escola de Economia e Finanças da Queen Mary University of London, que apresentará o paper “How Much Should We Trust Observational Estimates? Accumulating Evidence Using Randomized Controlled Trials with Imperfect Compliance, cujo abstract pode ser consultado mais abaixo.

Os seminários de Research do 2º Semestre decorrerão semanalmente até 4 de junho e contarão com a participação de docentes do ISEG e de outras escolas nacionais e internacionais. Saiba mais AQUI.

Entrada livre.

The use of observational methods remains common in program evaluation. How much should we trust these studies, which lack clear identifying variation? We propose adjusting confidence intervals to incorporate the uncertainty due to observational bias. Using data from 44 development RCTs with imperfect compliance (ICRCTs), we estimate the parameters required to construct our confidence intervals. The results show that, after accounting for potential bias, observational studies have low effective power. Using our adjusted confidence intervals, a hypothetical infinite sample size observational study has a minimum detectable effect size of over 0.3 standard deviations. We conclude that– given current evidence — observational studies are uninformative about many programs that in truth have important effects. There is a silver lining: collecting data from more ICRCTs may help to reduce uncertainty about bias, and increase the effective power of observational program evaluation in the future.